World oil to run out in 4 years

[Martin]

Take this one with a grain of salt.

World oil supplies are set to run out faster than expected, warn scientists - Independent Online Edition > Sci_Tech

World oil supplies are set to run out faster than expected, warn scientists
Scientists challenge major review of global reserves and warn that supplies will start to run out in four years' time
By Daniel Howden
Published: 14 June 2007

Scientists have criticised a major review of the world's remaining oil reserves, warning that the end of oil is coming sooner than governments and oil companies are prepared to admit.

BP's Statistical Review of World Energy, published yesterday, appears to show that the world still has enough "proven" reserves to provide 40 years of consumption at current rates. The assessment, based on officially reported figures, has once again pushed back the estimate of when the world will run dry.

However, scientists led by the London-based Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, say that global production of oil is set to peak in the next four years before entering a steepening decline which will have massive consequences for the world economy and the way that we live our lives.

According to "peak oil" theory our consumption of oil will catch, then outstrip our discovery of new reserves and we will begin to deplete known reserves.

Colin Campbell, the head of the depletion centre, said: "It's quite a simple theory and one that any beer drinker understands. The glass starts full and ends empty and the faster you drink it the quicker it's gone."

Dr Campbell, is a former chief geologist and vice-president at a string of oil majors including BP, Shell, Fina, Exxon and ChevronTexaco. He explains that the peak of regular oil - the cheap and easy to extract stuff - has already come and gone in 2005. Even when you factor in the more difficult to extract heavy oil, deep sea reserves, polar regions and liquid taken from gas, the peak will come as soon as 2011, he says.

This scenario is flatly denied by BP, whose chief economist Peter Davies has dismissed the arguments of "peak oil" theorists.

"We don't believe there is an absolute resource constraint. When peak oil comes, it is just as likely to come from consumption peaking, perhaps because of climate change policies as from production peaking."

In recent years the once-considerable gap between demand and supply has narrowed. Last year that gap all but disappeared. The consequences of a shortfall would be immense. If consumption begins to exceed production by even the smallest amount, the price of oil could soar above $100 a barrel. A global recession would follow.

Jeremy Legget, like Dr Campbell, is a geologist-turned conservationist whose book Half Gone: Oil, Gas, Hot Air and the Global Energy Crisis brought " peak oil" theory to a wider audience. He compares industry and government reluctance to face up to the impending end of oil, to climate change denial.

"It reminds me of the way no one would listen for years to scientists warning about global warming," he says. "We were predicting things pretty much exactly as they have played out. Then as now we were wondering what it would take to get people to listen."

In 1999, Britain's oil reserves in the North Sea peaked, but for two years after this became apparent, Mr Leggert claims, it was heresy for anyone in official circles to say so. "Not meeting demand is not an option. In fact, it is an act of treason," he says.

One thing most oil analysts agree on is that depletion of oil fields follows a predictable bell curve. This has not changed since the Shell geologist M King Hubbert made a mathematical model in 1956 to predict what would happen to US petroleum production. The Hubbert Curveshows that at the beginning production from any oil field rises sharply, then reaches a plateau before falling into a terminal decline. His prediction that US production would peak in 1969 was ridiculed by those who claimed it could increase indefinitely. In the event it peaked in 1970 and has been in decline ever since.

In the 1970s Chris Skrebowski was a long-term planner for BP. Today he edits the Petroleum Review and is one of a growing number of industry insiders converting to peak theory. "I was extremely sceptical to start with," he now admits. "We have enough capacity coming online for the next two-and-a-half years. After that the situation deteriorates."

What no one, not even BP, disagrees with is that demand is surging. The rapid growth of China and India matched with the developed world's dependence on oil, mean that a lot more oil will have to come from somewhere. BP's review shows that world demand for oil has grown faster in the past five years than in the second half of the 1990s. Today we consume an average of 85 million barrels daily. According to the most conservative estimates from the International Energy Agency that figure will rise to 113 million barrels by 2030.

Two-thirds of the world's oil reserves lie in the Middle East and increasing demand will have to be met with massive increases in supply from this region.

BP's Statistical Review is the most widely used estimate of world oil reserves but as Dr Campbell points out it is only a summary of highly political estimates supplied by governments and oil companies.

As Dr Campbell explains: "When I was the boss of an oil company I would never tell the truth. It's not part of the game."

A survey of the four countries with the biggest reported reserves - Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and Kuwait - reveals major concerns. In Kuwait last year, a journalist found documents suggesting the country's real reserves were half of what was reported. Iran this year became the first major oil producer to introduce oil rationing - an indication of the administration's view on which way oil reserves are going.

Sadad al-Huseini knows more about Saudi Arabia's oil reserves than perhaps anyone else. He retired as chief executive of the kingdom's oil corporation two years ago, and his view on how much Saudi production can be increased is sobering. "The problem is that you go from 79 million barrels a day in 2002 to 84.5 million in 2004. You're leaping by two to three million [barrels a day]" each year, he told The New York Times. "That's like a whole new Saudi Arabia every couple of years. It can't be done indefinitely."

The importance of black gold

* A reduction of as little as 10 to 15 per cent could cripple oil-dependent industrial economies. In the 1970s, a reduction of just 5 per cent caused a price increase of more than 400 per cent.

* Most farming equipment is either built in oil-powered plants or uses diesel as fuel. Nearly all pesticides and many fertilisers are made from oil.

* Most plastics, used in everything from computers and mobile phones to pipelines, clothing and carpets, are made from oil-based substances.

* Manufacturing requires huge amounts of fossil fuels. The construction of a single car in the US requires, on average, at least 20 barrels of oil.

* Most renewable energy equipment requires large amounts of oil to produce.

* Metal production - particularly aluminium - cosmetics, hair dye, ink and many common painkillers all rely on oil.

Alternative sources of power

Coal

There are still an estimated 909 billion tonnes of proven coal reserves worldwide, enough to last at least 155 years. But coal is a fossil fuel and a dirty energy source that will only add to global warming.

Natural gas

The natural gas fields in Siberia, Alaska and the Middle East should last 20 years longer than the world's oil reserves but, although cleaner than oil, natural gas is still a fossil fuel that emits pollutants. It is also expensive to extract and transport as it has to be liquefied.

Hydrogen fuel cells

Hydrogen fuel cells would provide us with a permanent, renewable, clean energy source as they combine hydrogen and oxygen chemically to produce electricity, water and heat. The difficulty, however, is that there isn't enough hydrogen to go round and the few clean ways of producing it are expensive.

Biofuels

Ethanol from corn and maize has become a popular alternative to oil. However, studies suggest ethanol production has a negative effect on energy investment and the environment because of the space required to grow what we need.

Renewable energy

Oil-dependent nations are turning to renewable energy sources such as hydroelectric, solar and wind power to provide an alternative to oil but the likelihood of renewable sources providing enough energy is slim.

Nuclear

Fears of the world's uranium supply running out have been allayed by improved reactors and the possibility of using thorium as a nuclear fuel. But an increase in the number of reactors across the globe would increase the chance of a disaster and the risk of dangerous substances getting into the hands of terrorists.

Our own oil companies helpin' OPEC stick it to us...

Oil Industry Scales Back Refinery Plans
Jun 17, 2007 -- A push from Congress and the White House for huge increases in biofuels, such as ethanol, is prompting the oil industry to scale back its plans for refinery expansions. That could keep gasoline prices high, possibly for years to come.

With President Bush calling for a 20 percent drop in gasoline use and the Senate now debating legislation for huge increases in ethanol production, oil companies see growing uncertainty about future gasoline demand and little need to expand refineries or build new ones. Oil industry executives no longer believe there will be the demand for gasoline over the next decade to warrant the billions of dollars in refinery expansions - as much as 10 percent increase in new refining capacity - they anticipated as recently as a year ago.

Biofuels such as ethanol and efforts to get automakers to build more fuel-efficient cars and SUVs have been portrayed as key to countering high gasoline prices, but they are likely to do little to curb costs at the pump today, or in the years ahead as refiners reduce gasoline production. A shortage of refineries frequently has been blamed by politicians for the sharp price spikes in gasoline, as was the case last week by Sen. James Inhofe, R-Okla., during debate on a Senate energy bill.

"The fact is that Americans are paying more at the pump because we do not have the domestic capacity to refine the fuels consumers demand," Inhofe complained as he tried unsuccessfully to get into the bill a proposal to ease permitting and environmental rules for refineries. This spring, refiners, hampered by outages, could not keep up with demand and imports were down because of greater fuel demand in Europe and elsewhere. Despite stable - even sometimes declining - oil prices, gasoline prices soared to record levels and remain well above $3 a gallon. Consumer advocates maintain the oil industry likes it that way.

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[waltky]

Martin wrote: Take this one with a grain of salt.

Maybe take this one with an ounce of salt water...

Pennsylvania Man Claims to Burn Salt Water
Tuesday, September 11, 2007 - An Erie, Pa., cancer researcher says he has found a way to burn salt water, a novel invention that is being touted by a retired chemistry professor as the "most remarkable" water science discovery in a century.

John Kanzius says he happened upon the discovery accidentally when he tried to desalinate seawater with a radio-frequency generator he says he developed to treat cancer. He discovered that as long as the salt water was exposed to the radio frequencies, it would burn. The discovery has scientists excited by the prospect of using salt water, the most abundant resource on earth, as a fuel.

Rustum Roy, a Penn State University emeritus professor of chemistry, has held demonstrations at his State College, Pa., lab to confirm his own observations. [Roy is also a specialist in "whole person healing" and Christian sexuality.]

The radio frequencies act to weaken the bonds between the elements that make up salt water, releasing the hydrogen, Roy said. Once ignited, the hydrogen will burn as long as it is exposed to the frequencies, he said. The discovery is "the most remarkable in water science in 100 years," Roy said.

"This is the most abundant element in the world. It is everywhere," Roy said. "Seeing it burn gives me the chills." Roy will meet this week with officials from the Department of Energy and the Department of Defense to try to obtain research funding.

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[waltky]

Hope we burnin' salt water in our gas tanks before the oil runs out...

The end of oil
September 14 2007: A small - but growing - group of experts think world oil production will peak in the next few years, to devastating effect.

At some point in the near future, worldwide oil production will peak, then decline rapidly, causing depression-like conditions or even the starvation of billions across the globe. That's the worst-case scenario for subscribers to the "peak oil" theory, who generally believe oil production has either topped out or will do so in the next couple of years.

What follows depends on who one talks to, but predictions run the gamut from the disaster scenario described above to merely oil prices in the $200-a-barrel range while society transitions to other energy sources. It's not a view held by most industry experts, including the oil companies, the government and most analysts at the financial houses.

But its adherents are growing, and include some fairly well-known names. In the coming week, a former chairman of oil giant Royal Dutch Shell is speaking at a peak oil conference in Ireland, as is former U.S. Energy Secretary James Schlesinger. Most peak-oil proponents simply don't believe the numbers put forward by industry and the government.

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See also:

Oil Hits New Record on Refinery Outages
15 Sept. 2007 - Oil Prices Set New Record, Gasoline Prices Rise As Hurricane Hits Texas Refineries

Oil prices briefly hit a record high and gasoline futures rose Thursday as refiners reported production problems after Hurricane Humberto hit Texas. Oil first traded over $80 a barrel on Wednesday after the Energy Department reported declines in crude and gasoline inventories and refinery activity last week.

But in addition to supply concerns, Humberto and a developing storm in the Atlantic were supporting prices Thursday. Several refineries in the Port Arthur, Texas, area were shut due to a widespread power outage. They included Valero Energy Corp.'s 325,000 barrel-per-day facility, Total SA's 180,000 barrel-per-day plant and Motiva Enterprises LLC's refinery with a capacity of 285,000 barrels of product a day.

Exxon Mobil Corp. said its Beaumont, Texas, refinery that produces 350,000 barrels per day suffered a minor production outage but remained up and running. Traders appear more concerned about an Atlantic storm which the National Hurricane Center is calling Tropical Depression Eight. While the storm's course remains unclear, energy investors get worried any time a tropical storm or hurricane threatens key oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico.

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[waltky]

Downside of ethanol...

Biofuels changing commodities markets
Thursday 18th October, 2007 - Global commodity markets are feeling the change from the increasing use of biofuels to tackle global warming.

The world's largest financial exchange, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has seen the effects through the recent surge in crude oil and wheat prices to record highs.

A convergence is now occurring between soft commodities and energy with many economies becoming very ethanol based.

The International Monetary Fund warned this week that an increasing global reliance on grain as a source of fuel could drive up food prices in poor countries with serious implications.

Biofuels changing commodities markets

[waltky]

New oil find but not likely to help prices in near term...

Huge Oil Reserve Found off Brazil's Coast
Nov 8, 2007 - Brazil's Petrobras Estimates Up to 8 Billion Barrels of Light Oil in Offshore Field

Brazil's state oil company said Thursday that it has discovered as much as 8 billion barrels of light crude in an ultra-deep field off the coast of Rio de Janeiro, an amount that could help transform the country into a major world oil exporter. Petroleo Brasileiro SA's announcement that the Tupi field has between 5 billion and 8 billion barrels of recoverable light oil sent Petrobras shares soaring 26 percent in New York, to a close at a new 52-week high.

The sheer magnitude of the find suggests Brazil could transform itself from a medium-level oil producer "to another level, like Venezuela, Arab nations and others," said presidential chief of staff Dilma Rousseff. "This has changed our reality," she said, adding that the amount in the Tupi field could represent 40 percent of all oil ever discovered in Brazil. Brazil became a net exporter of oil last year, but must still import light crude oil for the refined products it needs. The country produces and exports mostly heavy crude oil, which has to be mixed with the light oil in refineries.

The oil in Tupi and potentially in other fields nearby could drastically change Brazil's role in the world's oil business, where "the game is to become a petroleum exporter," she said. The Tupi field lies under 2,140 meters (7,060 feet) of water, more than 3,000 meters (almost 10,000 feet) of sand and rocks, and then another 2,000-meter (6,600-foot) thick layer of salt.

Getting the oil out will be a formidable challenge. It will take years because the petroleum is so deep under the earth's surface, meaning any impact on oil prices probably won't come soon. Petrobras, however, has become well-known over the last decade for its experience in extracting oil from extremely deep reserves.

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[waltky]

Startin' to get cheaper?...

Oil Falls on News OPEC to Discuss Hike
Nov 12, 2007 - Oil Prices Drop More Than $1 on Reports OPEC May Discuss Output Hike

Oil prices fell more than $1 a barrel Monday in Asia after reports that the oil exporter group OPEC would discuss increasing its output at an upcoming meeting in a bid to cool record crude prices. Saudi Arabia's oil minister said Sunday the oil cartel would discuss the issue when it meets later this year.

"The comments by the Saudi oil minister on the weekend didn't necessarily say that they're going to increase production, it wasn't quite that extreme, but the mere fact that he's speaking aloud about it shows that the issue is there," said Tobin Gorey, commodity strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney.

Oil prices have surged to near $100 per barrel recently amid concerns about supplies, a weak U.S. dollar and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' apparent reluctance to pump more crude into the market. But the Saudi oil minister, Ali al-Naimi, also said Gulf producers could not control crude prices. "Gulf countries do not control prices but they try as much as possible to secure supplies and market security," he said.

Many traders and analysts say the effect of any output hike on oil prices is likely to be limited as the recent rise in crude futures has had more to do with speculation than a real demand for Middle Eastern crude. OPEC's next policy meeting is scheduled for Dec. 5 in Abu Dhabi.

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[waltky]

What its gonna be like...

Peaking World Oil Production 'A Seismic Event'
November 17, 2007 - The growing shortage of oil will cause problems felt everywhere in the world, a policy expert says.

"The peaking of world oil production will be a seismic event, marking one of the great fault lines in world economic history," says Lester Brown of Earth Policy Institute, adding that "when oil output is no longer expanding, no country can get more oil unless another gets less." Food security will be severely affected since both modern agriculture and food transport are oil-intensive, he says, and the automobile industry will suffer when demand for cars plummets.

Among the leading oil producers, output appears to have peaked and turned downward in a dozen or so, Brown says. Among the post-peak countries are the United States, Venezuela and the two North Sea oil producers, the United Kingdom and Norway, he says.

The pre-peak countries are dominated by Russia, now the world's leading oil producer, having eclipsed Saudi Arabia in 2006. Outputs may be increased by Canada, largely because of its tar sands, and Kazakhstan, which is developing its oil field in the Caspian Sea, the only large find in recent decades. Other pre-peak countries include Algeria, Angola, Brazil, Nigeria, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Among the countries where production may be peaking are Saudi Arabia, Mexico, and China.

Peaking World Oil Production 'A Seismic Event' | November 18, 2007 | AHN

See also:

Could this be a harbinger of the future??...

Gas Price War Takes Deadly Turn
Nov. 16, 2007 - Feud Between Owners at Adjacent Gas Stations Ends With One Man's Shooting Death

A simmering feud over prices between neighboring gas station owners in Detroit turned fatal this morning as one man shot and killed the other during a confrontation outside one of the stations, police said. Police originally responded to a call about an assault in progress with a bat and a pipe outside a local Marathon gas station, Sgt. Eren Stephens Bell, a spokeswoman for the Detroit police, told ABC News. When officers arrived on the scene, they found that one station owner had been shot. He was transported to a local hospital, but was pronounced dead on arrival, Bell said.

"The shooter is in police custody," Bell said, adding that charges had not yet been filed against the alleged gunman and that the investigation was ongoing. Police didn't release the names of either of the gas station owners. ABC News' Detroit affiliate WXYZ reported that this morning's confrontation began as two employees of a Marathon station were manually changing the gas prices on the station's board to $2.93 for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline -- 3 cents a gallon less than the competing BP gas station next door.

As the two Marathon employees, including the station's 51-year-old owner, made the change, they were approached by two workers from the BP. One of those men was the competing station's 45-year-old owner, reportedly a father of five. Someone brandished a bat, according to the WXYZ report, before the owner went inside the Marathon shop, retrieved a gun and shot the BP owner multiple times. As police investigated the crime scene, BP then raised its price for a regular gallon of unleaded gas from $2.96 to $3.09. Witnesses told WXYZ that the two owners had been involved in an ongoing price war to compete for business as the cost of gasoline has continued to rise.

ABC News: Gas Price War Takes Deadly Turn

[waltky]

Airlines feelin' the fuel pinch...

Airlines Cut Back on U.S. Flights
Dec. 4, 2007: Don't Miss Your Flight -- It Could be the Last One Out for a Few Days

Responding largely to high fuel costs, the USA's six big network airlines continue to trim their U.S. schedules despite strong travel demand. The six carriers — American, United, Delta, Continental, Northhwest and US Airways — have scheduled 4.4% fewer seats for January than a year earlier, according to a USA TODAY analysis of flight schedules that includes their regional feeder airlines.

To trim capacity, airlines can eliminate routes, fly them less frequently or switch to smaller planes. Whatever the course, travelers face reduced options and fuller flights. The airlines, which handle about two-thirds of domestic flying, are reacting to this autumn's run-up in fuel prices, which can make some flights unprofitable, says William Swelbar, who heads MIT's International Center for Air Transportation. "With $90 oil, (airlines) have to really look in the mirror … to see whether the economics still make sense," he says.

Another factor: The airlines in recent years have been shifting more toward international routes, which, in general, are more lucrative. Fuel and business strategy alone don't explain the reduction. American, the world's largest airline, will fly less in the USA next month because an unusually high number of its planes are out of service for upgrades, says Tim Smith, an airline spokesman. "By summer, we expect to be back to full strength," he says.

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[waltky]

Ford Motor Co. gets serious about hydrogen storage for cars...

Hydrogen storage for cars?
December 21, 2007 - Hydrogen is the fuel of the future. Unfortunately, one problem remains: Hydrogen is a gas and cannot easily be pumped into a tank like gasoline.

Storage in the form of solid hydrides, chemical compounds of hydrogen and a metal or semimetal, are good storage materials in principle, but have not been well suited to automotive applications. An American research team at the Ford Motor Company in Dearborn and the University of California, Los Angeles, has now developed a novel hydride that could be a useful starting point for the development of future automotive hydrogen-storage materials.

As Jun Yang and his team report in the journal Angewandte Chemie, an “autocatalytic” reaction mechanism causes the composite made of three different hydrides to rapidly release hydrogen at lower temperatures and without dangerous by-products. Certain hydrogen compounds, such as lithium borohydride (LiBH4 ) and magnesium hydride (MgH2), can release hydrogen and then take it up again. However, for automotive applications, they require temperatures that are too high to release hydrogen, the hydrogen release and uptake are far too slow, and decomposition reactions release undesirable by-products such as ammonia. In addition, these compounds can only be “recharged” under very high pressure and temperature conditions.

The combination of two different hydrides (binary hydride) has previously been shown to improve things, as these compounds partly release hydrogen at lower temperatures than either of the individual components. The researchers led by Yang went a step further and combined three hydrogen-containing compounds—lithium amide (LiNH2), lithium borohydride, and magnesium hydride—in a 2:1:1 ratio to form a ternary hydride. This trio has substantially better properties than previous binary materials.

The reason for this improvement is a complex sequence of reactions between the various components. The first reactions begin as soon as the starting components are ground together. Heating starts off more reactions, releasing the hydrogen. The mixture is “autocatalytic”, which means that one of the reactions produces the product cores for the following reaction, which speeds up the entire reaction sequence. The result is a lower desorption temperature; the release of hydrogen begins at 150 °C. In addition the hydrogen is very pure because neither ammonia nor any other volatile decomposition products are formed. Recharging the ternary hydride with hydrogen can be accomplished under moderate conditions.

Hydrogen storage for cars? | Science Codex